Tropical Cyclone Risk Model

The Tropical Cyclone Risk Model is a stochastic tropical cyclone model developed by Geoscience Australia for estimating the wind hazard from tropical cyclones.

Due to the relatively short record of quality-controlled, consistent tropical cyclone observations, it is difficult to estimate average recurrence interval wind speeds due to tropical cyclones. To overcome the restriction of observed data, TCRM uses an autoregressive model to generate thousands of years of events that are statistically similar to the historical record. To translate these events to estimated wind speeds, TCRM applies a parametric windfield and boundary layer model to each event. Finally an extreme value distribution is fitted to the aggregated windfields at each grid point in the model domain to provide average recurrence interval wind speed estimates.

A complete user guide for TCRM is available here.