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improve uncertainty numbers for annual and multi-year estimates #19

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merged 9 commits into from
Mar 19, 2017

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Changes relevant to DOI-USGS/loadflex#174 and concurrent with DOI-USGS/loadflex#197

As noted in DOI-USGS/loadflex#174, this is a thornier issue than I can solve completely this month. aggregateSolute has no mechanism to account for correlation in estimation error due to parameter uncertainty, an oversight that I can bypass for loadReg models by using period-specific uncertainty straight from rloadest, but that will require a more extensive (bootstrap?) solution for composite and interpolation models. So the batch script now reports the uncertainty for these non-regression models as NA. It's probably fair to assume that when the use of the composite method is justified, its uncertainty is smaller than the upper bound set by the regression model. Interpolation models could be more or less uncertain.

@aappling-usgs aappling-usgs merged commit 2eef7ca into DOI-USGS:master Mar 19, 2017
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