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Add Hurricane Hugo
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# Makefile for Clawpack code in this directory. | ||
# This version only sets the local files and frequently changed | ||
# options, and then includes the standard makefile pointed to by CLAWMAKE. | ||
CLAWMAKE = $(CLAW)/clawutil/src/Makefile.common | ||
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# See the above file for details and a list of make options, or type | ||
# make .help | ||
# at the unix prompt. | ||
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# Adjust these variables if desired: | ||
# ---------------------------------- | ||
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CLAW_PKG = geoclaw # Clawpack package to use | ||
EXE = xgeoclaw # Executable to create | ||
SETRUN_FILE = setrun.py # File containing function to make data | ||
OUTDIR = _output # Directory for output | ||
SETPLOT_FILE = setplot.py # File containing function to set plots | ||
PLOTDIR = _plots # Directory for plots | ||
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# Environment variable FC should be set to fortran compiler, e.g. gfortran | ||
# FFLAGS ?= | ||
# FFLAGS = -w -fallow-argument-mismatch -O2 | ||
# FFLAGS += -DNETCDF -I$(NETCDF4_DIR)/include -L$(NETCDF4_DIR)/lib -lnetcdff -lnetcdf | ||
# LFLAGS += $(FFLAGS) -L$(NETCDF4_DIR)/lib | ||
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# --------------------------------- | ||
# package sources for this program: | ||
# --------------------------------- | ||
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GEOLIB = $(CLAW)/geoclaw/src/2d/shallow | ||
include $(GEOLIB)/Makefile.geoclaw | ||
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# --------------------------------------- | ||
# package sources specifically to exclude | ||
# (i.e. if a custom replacement source | ||
# under a different name is provided) | ||
# --------------------------------------- | ||
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EXCLUDE_MODULES = \ | ||
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EXCLUDE_SOURCES = \ | ||
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# ---------------------------------------- | ||
# List of custom sources for this program: | ||
# ---------------------------------------- | ||
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RIEMANN = $(CLAW)/riemann/src | ||
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MODULES = \ | ||
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SOURCES = \ | ||
$(RIEMANN)/rpn2_geoclaw.f \ | ||
$(RIEMANN)/rpt2_geoclaw.f \ | ||
$(RIEMANN)/geoclaw_riemann_utils.f \ | ||
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#------------------------------------------------------------------- | ||
# Include Makefile containing standard definitions and make options: | ||
include $(CLAWMAKE) | ||
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### DO NOT remove this line - make depends on it ### |
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# Hurricane Hugo Validation Study | ||
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## Introduction | ||
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Hurricane Hugo was a category 5 storm that developed in the Atlantic during the | ||
1989 season. It traveled west to the Caribbean, hitting Puerto Rico and | ||
surrounding islands September 18, 1989. At 4:00 UTC (or midnight EST) on | ||
September 22, 1989, Hurricane Hugo made its final landfall as a category 4 | ||
hurricane in Sullivan’s Island, SC, a barrier island just north of Charleston. | ||
The storm’s winds reached 140 mph and a minimum central pressure of 27.58 | ||
inches Hg. This caused tremendous damage along the South Carolina coast and | ||
surrounding areas, making Hugo the costliest U.S. storm with damages totaling | ||
$7 billion. There were 49 deaths related to the storm. Hurricane Hugo produced | ||
the highest storm tide heights on the American East Coast in recorded history. | ||
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Source: https://www.weather.gov/chs/HurricaneHugo-Sep1989 | ||
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## Storm Data | ||
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Data to run the simulation was retrieved from NOAA’s storm data archive: | ||
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/archive/2017/bal111989.dat.gz | ||
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As this hurricane occurred in 1989, there are missing pieces of data necessary | ||
for this simulation that were not recorded in the storm data file. This missing | ||
data was extracted using a separate Python script containing functions that | ||
relate known data to these unknowns. | ||
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## Topography/Bathymetry Data | ||
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A topography data file for the entire Atlantic was used for this simulation. It | ||
is recommended that you fetch a topography file that covers the computational | ||
domain from GEBCO to your desired resolution. | ||
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Domain - (90 W, 60 W) Longitude | ||
(15 N, 40 N) Latitude | ||
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Source: https://download.gebco.net/ | ||
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## Geoclaw setup | ||
* Landfall: September 22, 1989 4:00 UTC | ||
* Maximum levels of refinement: 4 | ||
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Extra refinement was added around the gauges to account for detailed topography along the coast. | ||
* Gauge 1: min 4, max 6 | ||
* Gauge 2: min 8, max 8 | ||
* Gauge 3: min 4, max 6 | ||
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## Comparison Data | ||
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Water levels from three gauges in the area of Hurricane Hugo’s impact were | ||
compared to the simulation’s results. Gauge data was taken from the NOAA | ||
inundations dashboard: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/ | ||
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The data had to be manually downloaded from the dashboard and uploaded into the | ||
script due to its age. The folder titled ‘gauges’ houses data for the three | ||
gauges, under their NOAA IDs. | ||
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Gauge 1: Charleston, SC | ||
* NOAA ID: 8665530 | ||
* Location: -79.92351, 32.7806818 | ||
* Max Surge: ~3m | ||
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Gauge 2: Wilmington, NC | ||
* NOAA ID: 8658120 | ||
* Location: -77.9534709, 34.2274321 | ||
* Max Surge: ~1m | ||
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Gauge 3: Duke Marine Lab, NC | ||
* NOAA ID: 8656483 | ||
* Location: -76.6699314, 34.7200556 | ||
* Max Surge: ~1m | ||
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## Results | ||
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The simulation returns data for gauges 1 and 3. The general timing and height of | ||
the surge match for these gauges. The model predicts the surge occurring a bit | ||
before the actual surge both times, but this is likely due to estimations in | ||
the landfall time rather than a modeling error. There is insufficient | ||
refinement for gauge 2. This gauge is located deep into the Cape Fear River, so | ||
higher refinement levels are necessary for the model to accurately estimate | ||
this detailed topography. | ||
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There were simplifications taken in extracting the missing storm data, but they | ||
did not significantly affect accuracy. Added extra refinement around the gauges | ||
worked 2 of out 3 times without a loss of efficiency. | ||
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## Conclusion | ||
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The model ran using estimations of missing data without significant loss of | ||
accuracy. The model was able to refine areas with detailed topography while | ||
maintaining efficiency to an extent. | ||
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## Future Work | ||
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Next steps include running the simulation with higher refinement levels and | ||
modifying the model to account for river topography. The estimation of missing | ||
storm data can be extended to create fully synthetic storms. We can use these | ||
storms to model effects due to climate change by running them through this | ||
software. | ||
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This study was completed by Riley Fisher as a part of the Columbia-Amazon Summer | ||
Undergraduate Research Experience (2022). |
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Date,Time (GMT),Predicted (m),Verified (m),Preliminary (m),Forecast Guidance(m) | ||
1989/09/20,04:00,1.617,1.615,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,05:00,1.527,1.515,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,06:00,1.312,1.32,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,07:00,1.058,1.152,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,08:00,0.834,0.939,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,09:00,0.679,0.759,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,10:00,0.631,0.71,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,11:00,0.715,0.741,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,12:00,0.915,0.92,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,13:00,1.184,1.116,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,14:00,1.463,1.369,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,15:00,1.693,1.597,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,16:00,1.832,1.734,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,17:00,1.838,1.728,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,18:00,1.699,1.591,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,19:00,1.474,1.372,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,20:00,1.237,1.158,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,21:00,1.02,0.945,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,22:00,0.854,0.814,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,23:00,0.784,0.771,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,00:00,0.83,0.786,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,01:00,0.976,0.908,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,02:00,1.178,1.094,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,03:00,1.378,1.308,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,04:00,1.523,1.466,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,05:00,1.565,1.497,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,06:00,1.469,1.381,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,07:00,1.271,1.192,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,08:00,1.055,1.018,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,09:00,0.868,0.856,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,10:00,0.732,0.725,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,11:00,0.686,0.686,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,12:00,0.757,0.756,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,13:00,0.935,0.914,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,14:00,1.181,1.134,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,15:00,1.439,1.372,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,16:00,1.654,1.57,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,17:00,1.783,1.713,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,18:00,1.783,1.728,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,19:00,1.657,1.643,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,20:00,1.468,1.478,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,21:00,1.269,1.326,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,22:00,1.071,1.219,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,23:00,0.905,1.131,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,00:00,0.825,1.076,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,01:00,0.854,1.097,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,02:00,0.982,1.219,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,03:00,1.168,1.42,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,04:00,1.355,1.625,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,05:00,1.49,1.75,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,06:00,1.524,1.792,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,07:00,1.434,1.74,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,08:00,1.265,1.551,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,09:00,1.085,1.359,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,10:00,0.919,1.186,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,11:00,0.783,0.969,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,12:00,0.727,0.96,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,13:00,0.781,1.03,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,14:00,0.94,1.061,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,15:00,1.168,1.122,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,16:00,1.409,1.314,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,17:00,1.611,1.533,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,18:00,1.729,1.713,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,19:00,1.732,1.622,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,20:00,1.63,1.558,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,21:00,1.476,1.411,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,22:00,1.299,1.225,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,23:00,1.103,1.018,-,- | ||
1989/09/23,00:00,0.931,0.911,-,- | ||
1989/09/23,01:00,0.842,0.878,-,- | ||
1989/09/23,02:00,0.862,0.835,-,- | ||
1989/09/23,03:00,0.983,0.863,-,- | ||
1989/09/23,04:00,1.162,1.049,-,- |
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Date,Time (GMT),Predicted (m),Verified (m),Preliminary (m),Forecast Guidance(m) | ||
1989/09/20,04:00,1.915,1.792,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,05:00,2.059,1.963,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,06:00,2.095,2.015,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,07:00,1.987,1.932,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,08:00,1.741,1.689,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,09:00,1.438,1.399,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,10:00,1.152,1.155,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,11:00,0.922,0.942,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,12:00,0.78,0.796,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,13:00,0.816,0.747,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,14:00,1.115,1.094,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,15:00,1.569,1.551,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,16:00,1.943,1.881,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,17:00,2.155,2.085,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,18:00,2.26,2.222,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,19:00,2.255,2.252,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,20:00,2.113,2.088,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,21:00,1.877,1.798,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,22:00,1.61,1.524,-,- | ||
1989/09/20,23:00,1.344,1.289,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,00:00,1.093,1.079,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,01:00,0.924,0.911,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,02:00,0.973,0.896,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,03:00,1.266,1.219,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,04:00,1.617,1.6,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,05:00,1.861,1.844,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,06:00,2,1.987,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,07:00,2.041,2.024,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,08:00,1.931,1.917,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,09:00,1.689,1.661,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,10:00,1.403,1.387,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,11:00,1.147,1.152,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,12:00,0.946,0.96,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,13:00,0.824,0.823,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,14:00,0.87,0.844,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,15:00,1.159,1.164,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,16:00,1.57,1.527,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,17:00,1.897,1.798,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,18:00,2.094,1.987,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,19:00,2.208,2.109,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,20:00,2.21,2.118,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,21:00,2.074,2.012,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,22:00,1.854,1.814,-,- | ||
1989/09/21,23:00,1.612,1.6,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,00:00,1.369,1.433,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,01:00,1.126,1.234,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,02:00,0.957,1.143,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,03:00,1.001,1.28,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,04:00,1.27,1.737,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,05:00,1.581,2.103,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,06:00,1.808,2.362,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,07:00,1.957,2.56,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,08:00,2.007,2.667,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,09:00,1.897,2.667,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,10:00,1.662,2.423,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,11:00,1.398,2.118,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,12:00,1.17,1.875,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,13:00,0.985,1.731,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,14:00,0.863,1.597,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,15:00,0.903,1.46,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,16:00,1.173,1.396,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,17:00,1.546,1.64,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,18:00,1.841,1.945,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,19:00,2.04,2.07,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,20:00,2.168,2.213,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,21:00,2.175,2.277,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,22:00,2.043,2.185,-,- | ||
1989/09/22,23:00,1.839,1.926,-,- | ||
1989/09/23,00:00,1.619,1.658,-,- | ||
1989/09/23,01:00,1.388,1.445,-,- | ||
1989/09/23,02:00,1.14,1.262,-,- | ||
1989/09/23,03:00,0.961,1.097,-,- | ||
1989/09/23,04:00,1,1.039,-,- |
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