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abstarct-for-submission.txt
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abstarct-for-submission.txt
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We propose a new condition-based maintenance policy for complex systems, based on the status (working, defective) of all components within a system, as well as the reliability block diagram of the system. By means of the survival signature, we obtain a predictive distribution for the system survival time, based on components' functioning status and the current age of the functioning components. The time to failure of the components of the system is modeled by a Weibull distribution with a fixed shape parameter. The scale parameter is iteratively updated in a Bayesian fashion using the current (censored and non-censored) component lifetimes. Each component type has a separate Weibull model that may also include test data. The cost-optimal moment of replacement for the system is obtained by minimizing the expected cost rate per unit of time. The unit cost rate is recalculated when components fail or at the end of every (very short) fixed inter-inspection interval, leading to a dynamic maintenance policy, since the aging of components and possible failures will change the cost-optimal moment of repair in the course of time. Via numerical experiments, some insight into the performance of the policy is given.
condition-based maintenance; system reliability; remaining useful life; survival signature; unit time cost rate
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