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Five parameters are all you need

In ΛCDM, we demote the optical depth τreio to a derived parameter with analytic modeling and symbolic regression of 21cmFAST reionization timelines.

The key points are:

  • We discover that reionization history has a universal shape, independent of cosmology or astrophysics, in both modeling and parameters;
  • The Gompertz function, introduced 200 years ago to model human mortality, also well describes the mortality of neutral hydrogen in the Universe;
  • Our reionization history is asymmetric in time, as preferred by simulation and observational data, unlike the conventional tanh model;
  • We demote the reionization optical depth, the 6th cosmological parameter and an empirical one, to a derived parameter, as function of the other 5 cosmological parameters and astrophysics;
  • We tighten the constraint on the optical depth τreio by 5 times, and that on the primordial scalar amplitude As by more than 2 times;
  • For the first time, we “detect” the ionizing efficiency ζUV at high significance, the dominating parameter for reionization, a leap from the previous result consistent with zero.