Permalink for Seasonal Forecast Uncertainty user case

[johtoblan]

Data Type

Seasonal Forecasts

Assessment Category

uncertainty-quality-flags

Dataset Name

seasonal-monthly-single-levels

Question Number

1

Workflow ID

eqctier3-b65326c7-9d09-4a23-b75e-8682cf45be64

Zipped Notebook

uncertainty.zip

Environment

name: wp3
channels:
  - conda-forge
dependencies:
  - _libgcc_mutex=0.1=conda_forge
  - _openmp_mutex=4.5=2_gnu
  - accessible-pygments=0.0.5=pyhd8ed1ab_0
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  - pytz=2024.1=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - pyyaml=6.0.2=py311h9ecbd09_1
  - pyzmq=26.2.0=py311h7deb3e3_2
  - qhull=2020.2=h434a139_5
  - qt6-main=6.7.2=hadfd74e_5
  - rasterio=1.3.11=py311hce1b398_2
  - re2=2023.09.01=h7f4b329_2
  - readline=8.2=h8228510_1
  - referencing=0.35.1=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - regionmask=0.12.1=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - requests=2.32.3=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - rfc3339-validator=0.1.4=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - rfc3986-validator=0.1.1=pyh9f0ad1d_0
  - rich=13.8.1=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - rpds-py=0.20.0=py311h9e33e62_1
  - s2n=1.5.3=h7b32b05_0
  - scikit-learn=1.5.2=py311h57cc02b_1
  - scipy=1.14.1=py311he1f765f_0
  - seaborn=0.13.2=hd8ed1ab_2
  - seaborn-base=0.13.2=pyhd8ed1ab_2
  - send2trash=1.8.3=pyh0d859eb_0
  - setuptools=75.1.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - shapely=2.0.6=py311h9036bbf_1
  - shellingham=1.5.4=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - simpervisor=1.0.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - six=1.16.0=pyh6c4a22f_0
  - snappy=1.2.1=ha2e4443_0
  - sniffio=1.3.1=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - snowballstemmer=2.2.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - snuggs=1.4.7=pyhd8ed1ab_1
  - sortedcontainers=2.4.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - soupsieve=2.5=pyhd8ed1ab_1
  - sparse=0.15.4=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - spdlog=1.14.1=hed91bc2_1
  - sphinx=7.4.7=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinx-book-theme=1.1.3=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinx-comments=0.0.3=pyh9f0ad1d_0
  - sphinx-copybutton=0.5.2=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinx-design=0.6.1=pyhd8ed1ab_1
  - sphinx-external-toc=1.0.1=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinx-jupyterbook-latex=1.0.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinx-multitoc-numbering=0.1.3=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinx-thebe=0.3.1=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinx-togglebutton=0.3.2=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinxcontrib-applehelp=2.0.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinxcontrib-bibtex=2.6.3=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinxcontrib-devhelp=2.0.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinxcontrib-htmlhelp=2.1.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinxcontrib-jsmath=1.0.1=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinxcontrib-qthelp=2.0.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sphinxcontrib-serializinghtml=1.1.10=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - sqlalchemy=2.0.35=py311h9ecbd09_0
  - sqlite=3.46.1=h9eae976_0
  - stack_data=0.6.2=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - statsmodels=0.14.3=py311h9f3472d_1
  - structlog=24.4.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - tabulate=0.9.0=pyhd8ed1ab_1
  - tblib=3.0.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - tenacity=9.0.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - terminado=0.18.1=pyh0d859eb_0
  - threadpoolctl=3.5.0=pyhc1e730c_0
  - tiledb=2.26.1=h4c922dd_1
  - tinycss2=1.3.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - tk=8.6.13=noxft_h4845f30_101
  - toml=0.10.2=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - tomli=2.0.1=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - toolz=0.12.1=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - tornado=6.4.1=py311h9ecbd09_1
  - tqdm=4.66.5=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - traitlets=5.14.3=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - typer=0.12.5=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - typer-slim=0.12.5=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - typer-slim-standard=0.12.5=hd8ed1ab_0
  - types-python-dateutil=2.9.0.20240906=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - typing-extensions=4.12.2=hd8ed1ab_0
  - typing_extensions=4.12.2=pyha770c72_0
  - typing_utils=0.1.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - tzcode=2024b=hb9d3cd8_0
  - tzdata=2024a=h8827d51_1
  - uc-micro-py=1.0.3=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - udunits2=2.2.28=h40f5838_3
  - uri-template=1.3.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - uriparser=0.9.8=hac33072_0
  - urllib3=2.2.3=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - wayland=1.23.1=h3e06ad9_0
  - wcwidth=0.2.13=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - webcolors=24.8.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - webencodings=0.5.1=pyhd8ed1ab_2
  - websocket-client=1.8.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - wheel=0.44.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - xarray=2024.9.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - xcb-util=0.4.1=hb711507_2
  - xcb-util-cursor=0.1.5=hb9d3cd8_0
  - xcb-util-image=0.4.0=hb711507_2
  - xcb-util-keysyms=0.4.1=hb711507_0
  - xcb-util-renderutil=0.3.10=hb711507_0
  - xcb-util-wm=0.4.2=hb711507_0
  - xerces-c=3.2.5=h666cd97_1
  - xesmf=0.8.7=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - xhistogram=0.3.2=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - xkeyboard-config=2.42=h4ab18f5_0
  - xorg-fixesproto=5.0=hb9d3cd8_1003
  - xorg-inputproto=2.3.2=hb9d3cd8_1003
  - xorg-kbproto=1.0.7=hb9d3cd8_1003
  - xorg-libice=1.1.1=hd590300_0
  - xorg-libsm=1.2.4=h7391055_0
  - xorg-libx11=1.8.9=hb711507_1
  - xorg-libxau=1.0.11=hb9d3cd8_1
  - xorg-libxdmcp=1.1.3=hb9d3cd8_1
  - xorg-libxext=1.3.4=h0b41bf4_2
  - xorg-libxfixes=5.0.3=h7f98852_1004
  - xorg-libxi=1.7.10=h4bc722e_1
  - xorg-libxrender=0.9.11=hd590300_0
  - xorg-libxtst=1.2.5=h4bc722e_0
  - xorg-libxxf86vm=1.1.5=hb9d3cd8_2
  - xorg-recordproto=1.14.2=hb9d3cd8_1003
  - xorg-renderproto=0.11.1=hb9d3cd8_1003
  - xorg-xextproto=7.3.0=hb9d3cd8_1004
  - xorg-xproto=7.0.31=hb9d3cd8_1008
  - xskillscore=0.0.26=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - xyzservices=2024.9.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - xz=5.2.6=h166bdaf_0
  - yaml=0.2.5=h7f98852_2
  - yarl=1.12.1=py311h9ecbd09_0
  - zarr=2.18.3=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - zeromq=4.3.5=ha4adb4c_5
  - zict=3.0.0=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - zipp=3.20.2=pyhd8ed1ab_0
  - zlib=1.3.1=h4ab18f5_1
  - zstandard=0.23.0=py311hbc35293_1
  - zstd=1.5.6=ha6fb4c9_0
  - pip:
      - alembic==1.13.3
      - c3s-eqc-automatic-quality-control==0.1.2.dev113+g12de045
      - cacholote==1.4.0
      - cgul==0.0.4
      - earthkit-geo==0.2.0
      - earthkit-meteo==0.1.1
      - eccodes==2.38.0
      - ecmwflibs==0.6.3
      - kaleido==0.2.1
      - mako==1.3.5
      - sqlalchemy-utils==0.41.2
prefix: /data/common/miniforge3/envs/wp3

Anything else we need to know?

I am a bit unsure of which user question number this is? Also I can not find a workflow ID?

[malmans2]

Hi @johtoblan,

The Workflow ID should be clearly shown in the CIM. It looks like this: eqctier3-1123e4567-e89b-12d3-a456-42665544000. I don't use the CIM, but there should be a box showing both task and workflow ID.

About the question number, maybe @vincenzodetoma can help?

[vincenzodetoma]

Hi @johtoblan, you can check the workflow id by reaching the page from the list of your tasks in the CIM. It should be at the top right when you assign/unassign the task to you. Regarding the question number, it depends from how many assessment you already sent and how you have decided to number them, since now each task contains just one use case. Hope this helps a bit!

[crgoddard]

Just finding this thread as we wanted to check the preview and merge to main, it looks like only two executions for seasonal tier 3 survived the splitting of the QARs (those two are already published) - so I think this will need intervention from Predictia, or opening a new execution associated with the QAR (not sure if CNR can do this).

[crgoddard]

Correction: the execution seems to be: https://cds2-backoffice.copernicus-climate.eu/app/execution/eqctier3-b65326c7-9d09-4a23-b75e-8682cf45be64, which points to: https://cds2-backoffice.copernicus-climate.eu/app/qar/5002

I think the question number @malmans2 needs is the same one that is used in the filename of the Notebook, so Q1?

@johtoblan can you confirm, and then resubmit them to EQC manager after updating the information (this and the reliability one will be sent back to you in the CIM - note I can't find a PR on that one).

[malmans2]

Hi @johtoblan,

I can issue the permalink once you confirm the question number and workflow ID.
No rush though, just wanted to make sure you're not waiting on me.

[johtoblan]

Sorry for my late response, been on on leave. I have updated the Question number and workflow ID. Also found an error for the section-headers that I have updated and reuploaded the zip.

[malmans2]

Permalink: https://github.com/ecmwf-projects/c3s2-eqc-quality-assessment/blob/c3072711241193bc45c82992ae43c00ef502fc98/Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_uncertainty-quality-flags_q01.ipynb

Please ensure that the notebook name is correct. If you need to make any modifications (e.g., addressing the reviewer's comments), please share the new version of the notebook here, and I will provide a new permalink. Let me know once the notebook is accepted, and I will merge the PR into the main branch.

PREVIEW

[crgoddard]

Hi @johtoblan, Andre is going to send this back to you in the CIM, as the details need to be updated with the title, up to date methods, up to date assessment statement, permalink, preview link.

A few final comments from me looking at the preview above:

Assessment question:

'How can I assess the forecasted temperatures for two months time?'

• Could replace forecasted with forecast - both grammatically correct but 'forecast' is more common so has a lower chance of raising a comment.

Intro text:

For two months prediction time, emphasis should be put on a probabilistic approach and understanding the uncertainty in the prediction

• added 'and'

Assessment statement:

All forecast systems provide a consistent outlook that the month will end up in the upper tercile of the climatology (probabilities between 50 and 61% for the different systems).

• from the summary plot it looks like jma has a probability of more like 45% for the upper tercile?
• The per model plot later I the notebook also shows this

Methodology:

and is also done here, in verification plots for the C3S graphical products.

• added more context so the user has an idea what is behind the 'here' link

Section 1:
Since the methodology said 'Define a weighting function for the gridded data' it would be good to mention what is done here, as users probably won't go to look at the bopen regionalized_mean package.

Suggest adding (if correct) : 'The 'weights' flag will be set to 'True' in the next section, which means the area average is carried out taking into account the variation of the cell areas with cosine of latitude in the regular lat-lon grid.'

Section 4:

provides more examples of this in the graphical products: https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/.

• Removed mention of charts and graphical products as separate things, suggest removing the brackets from the link and making it part of the sentence.

[crgoddard]

After taking these small comments into account, and updating the details in the QAR in the CIM, please send the QAR for EQC manager approval, and I will publish the assessment in the Book.